As we transition from summer into fall, the real estate market is showing some steady shifts. With interest rates continuing to drop and inventory holding steady, it’s an important time to stay on top of the latest trends. Whether you're considering buying, selling, or just curious about the market, understanding these changes will help you make informed decisions as we head into the cooler months.Our insights will guide you through these changes with confidence.
The real estate market is finding its balance as we move into the fall season. While interest rates are dropping, the supply of homes for sale is remaining steady. In August 2024, we saw 9,505 active listings, which is nearly the same as July’s 9,511 listings. This leveling off in inventory suggests that we may have hit the peak of available homes for the year, giving buyers a good range of options while keeping competition for sellers steady.
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Demand Dynamics and Sales Projection:
The number of homes sold has decreased slightly but remains stable. In August, 2,265 homes were sold, compared to 2,394 in July. This minor decline in sales is typical for this time of year as the market enters a seasonal slowdown. However, with interest rates continuing to fall, demand may increase in the coming months as more buyers return to the market.
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Mortgage rates have been dropping steadily over the past few months, which is creating a shift in the real estate market. In August 2024, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 6.50%, down from 6.85% in July and 7.18% last year—a 9% decrease year-over-year. For a 15-year mortgage, rates have fallen to 5.68%, compared to 6.14% in July and 6.55% in August 2023—a 6% decrease.
These falling rates are encouraging more people to consider buying homes or refinancing their current mortgages. Lower rates mean lower monthly payments, which makes homeownership more affordable for buyers. For sellers, this could lead to more demand as buyers take advantage of better borrowing conditions.
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On the horizon, there's a 100% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in November. Experts predict a 68% chance of a 0.25% cut and a 32% chance of a 0.50% cut. The market is already pricing in a 75% probability that rates will be at least 1% lower by January 2025.
With lower interest rates expected in the near future, now could be a smart time to explore your options—whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing.
Now, let's delve into some fascinating details about homes sold into August:
Pricing Power:
In August, the market showed some changes in pricing dynamics. While the average percentage of original list price that homes sold for decreased to 94% (down from 95% in July), the median sales price held firm at $375K. This indicates that, although sellers are starting to accept slightly lower offers, home prices are still relatively stable.
Seller concessions were offered in 38% of all sales, slightly down from 40% in July. The average concession amount was $8.9K, which is lower than previous months. For new construction homes, the average concession was $14.1K (down from $15.7K in July). For existing homes, the average concession was $7.3K, a slight drop from $7.7K last month.
Additionally, homes that sold within 30 days tended to receive the highest percentage of their original list price—98%—while homes that stayed on the market for over 90 days sold for 91% or less of the list price, with higher seller concessions. This highlights the importance of pricing homes competitively from the start.
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August Sales Snapshot:
Sales Distribution: 63% of sales were between $200K and $500K, up from 62% in July. There were 101 sales over $1M, a decrease from 154 in July.
Cash Sales: Cash transactions made up 26% of all sales, a slight increase from 25% last month.
Sale Price to Original List Price: Homes sold for an average of 94% of their original list price, down from 95% in July.
Seller Concessions: 38% of properties included seller concessions, down from 40% last month. The average seller concession was $8.9K.
New construction concessions: averaged $14.1K, down from $15.7K.
Existing home concessions: averaged $7.3K, down from $7.7K.
New Construction: New construction made up 25% of all sales, up from 23% last month.
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In August 2024, the average home price was $451K, reflecting a 3.5% decline from earlier this year. This drop shows a softening in higher-priced homes, which has contributed to the overall decrease in the average price.
On the other hand, the median home price showed more stability, sitting at $355K, which is a 1.4% increase year-to-date. This rise in the median price suggests that demand for homes in the mid-range remains strong, even as prices in the higher-end market have started to dip.
The distinction between the average and median price movements reflects a market where mid-priced homes are still in demand, but higher-priced homes are facing more price reductions.
These trends highlight the importance of keeping an eye on both metrics—average and median prices—to understand where the market is headed.
Now, let's take a closer look at September so far:
September Active Listings Update:
As we delve into September, the market shows a diverse range of active listings, reflecting varied dynamics across different segments and counties. 57% of listings fall between $200K and $500K, slightly up from 56% last month, indicating continued interest in mid-range priced homes. New construction accounts for 23% of active listings, slightly down from 24% last month, suggesting a slight shift in market focus.
Condos remain steady, making up 13% of all listings, indicating stable interest in this property type. The higher-end market ($600K and up) is experiencing a decrease, aligning with broader market adjustments.
County-specific changes show:
Baker County saw a 4% increase in listings.
Clay County listings are up by 2%.
Duval County experienced a 4% rise.
Nassau County remained stable with no percentage change.
St. Johns County observed a decrease in listings by 6%.
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Notably, higher-end listings above $600K are declining, which may indicate a cooling in the luxury market. This could represent an opportunity for buyers looking to enter this segment at more competitive prices.
help buyers and sellers make informed decisions. Whether you're looking to invest in new construction, find a family home within the most active price bands, or explore opportunities in the luxury market, staying informed is key. We will continue to monitor these trends and provide updates to help you navigate the evolving real estate landscape.
Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or if you're ready to explore the opportunities in today’s market. Together, we can navigate these trends and make sure you get the best possible outcome.
We look forward to working with you and helping you achieve your real estate dreams!
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